El Niño may become very strong this winter

El Niño^*1 is getting stronger, and it may become one of the strongest on record^*2. The Climate Prediction Center of NOAA, a United States government office that studies the oceans and the weather, said this on September 10, 2026.

El Niño happens when the sea near the equator^*3 in the eastern Pacific Ocean becomes warmer than usual. The center said there is now a more than 90% chance^*4 that this El Niño will become "very strong" between fall and winter in 2026. It also said there is a 75% chance that it will be a "historic event^*5" in the months from October to December. That means it would be one of the strongest since 1950.

The sea is already much warmer than usual. In some parts of the eastern Pacific near the equator, the surface^*6 of the sea is more than 3.0°C warmer than normal. Scientists measure the water in several areas of the ocean. In the area called Niño-3.4, the water is 1.8°C warmer than normal. In Niño-3 it is 2.5°C warmer, and in Niño-1+2 it is 3.4°C warmer. Only the area called Niño-4 became a little cooler in August. There, the water is now 0.1°C warmer than normal.

The center calls an El Niño "very strong" when a measure called RONI^*7 is 2.5°C or higher for three months.

The center will give its next report on October 8, 2026.

1. *1 El Niño: A time when the sea in part of the Pacific Ocean becomes much warmer than usual. It can change the weather in many places.
2. *2 on record: Since people started writing down the numbers.
3. *3 equator: The line around the middle of the Earth, between the north and the south.
4. *4 chance: How likely something is to happen.
5. *5 historic event: Something so big that it will be remembered for a long time.
6. *6 surface: The top of the sea.
7. *7 RONI: A number that scientists use to say how strong an El Niño is.